A good friend texted me after Matt Kuchar's improbable closing holes to ask: "Which is more likely, a 3-Putt from 4 ft. or to hole out from a greenside bunker?" I do not have this stuff on the top of my head but was intrigued, so looked into ShotLink.
The greenside bunker shot holed is not that uncommon on Tour. In 2013, there were 252 instances in 20,741 attempts or one in every 82 attempts.
Since 2003, there have been 499 3-Putts from 4 ft. in 143,788 attempts or one in every 288 attempts.
If my math is correct, the bunker holed is 3.5 times more likely. I was not able to calculate the odds that one player would do both on consecutive holes.
Nice to see Kuchar close this one out.
It is interesting to note how the tables turn on these two outcomes as we move into the amateur ranks. Let's take the average 10 handicap - The 3-Putt from 4 ft. becomes 2.4 times more likely than the hole out from the greenside sand.
3-Putt from 4 ft.: 1 in every 170 attempts
Hole out from greenside sand: 1 in every 408 attempts