Wednesday, July 29, 2009

The Problem with Traditional Golf Statistics

Niblicks of Truth is all about the right and wrong answers that can result from the use - and misuse - of golf statistics. One of the most frequently-asked questions from prospective users of our ShotByShot golf game analysis program is: “How can you tell me what I need to know about my tee game if you don’t track Fairways Hit?” At the risk of harping, whenever I hear this question I know that it's time to point out some of the flaws in traditional golf statistics.

In my view the main reason that traditional statistics don’t work is because golf is a multifaceted game, played in three dimensions – up, down, right, left, long and short. It cannot be properly represented by flat, YES or NO answers to one-dimensional questions. Here are some of my favorite examples:

Fairways Hit
This may be the best example of the shortcoming of traditional stats. Did a golfer hit the fairway – or not? With traditional stats, a YES answer is always presumed to be a better outcome than a NO answer. But is this correct? Which would you rather have – a drive that ends up only 175 yards out but in the middle of the fairway, or a 275 yard rocket that ends up in the first cut of rough? And if you miss the fairway, wouldn’t you prefer the 275 yard rocket over a ball hit Out of Bounds or Lost? The Fairways Hit stat treats those two misses equally.

Greens-in-regulation (GIR’s)
This is by far the most useful of the old-world stats because a YES tells us something definite and positive about the way that hole was played. There are two problems, however. First, most amateurs do not hit very many greens. The average, male 18 handicapper will hit less than 4 of 18 greens each round. Along with this, there is no indication of what happened - or how bad the miss was - on all of those other holes. So a big part of the story goes untold.

Sand Saves
Also known as a 1-putt following a greenside sand shot, the Sand Save stat actually encompasses two facets of the game – sand play and putting. Because it is a blend of the two, it can mask an unusual strength or weakness in one area or the other.

Unfortunately traditional stats ignore the rest of the short game, which usually comprises a far greater number of shots per round. And again, traditional stats tell a golfer nothing useful about the shots that miss the green.

# Putts per Round
This statistic is relatively easy to keep but has a major flaw in that it ignores the distances of the putting opportunities. A 2-putt from 3 feet counts exactly the same as a 2-putt from 75 feet. It’s like balancing your checkbook based upon the number of checks you wrote, and ignoring the amount. Not very helpful…

If anything I am saying here makes sense, and you believe that the ability to measure performance is a key component to improving your golf game, then the ShotByShot game analysis program is for you. Go to http://www.shotbyshot.com/ and check out the Free Trial.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

How Has Tiger Woods Changed Golf - and Tiger?

With apologies to UJ, here's another entry about Tiger Woods. Hey, he is #1 in the WORLD!

Tiger clearly changed the look of the landscape in golf when he escalated the concept of training and fitness in golf to a new level. I remember when we were told by the "experts" that weight training would destroy our flexibility and inhibit our ability to make full swings. Today the winners are extremely fit. A good example is Lee Westwood. Five years ago Lee was a rolly-polly dough boy compared to the athlete that we saw contending for the Open title. This level of complete commitment to the sport is now much more the rule than the exception.

I am not the first to write about Tiger's routine but I did some research and found some interesting niblicks about what he has accomplished physiologically, and what he does to maintain his physical edge.

As a baseline, I learned that Tiger left Stanford in 1996 standing 6 foot, 2 and weighing 158 pounds. He has since put on 30 pounds of muscle. According to Tiger's website, his daily routine is as follows, and I have read elsewhere that it is repeated six days a week:

6:30 a.m. - One hour of cardio. Choice between endurance runs, sprints or biking


7:30 a.m. - One hour of lower weight training. 60-70 percent of normal lifting weight, high reps and multiple sets

8:30 a.m. - High protein/low-fat breakfast. Typically includes egg-white omelet with vegetables

9:00 a.m. - Two hours on the golf course. Hit on the range and work on swing

11:00 a.m. - Practice putting for 30 minutes to an hour

Noon - Play nine holes

1:30 p.m. - High protein/low-fat lunch. Typically includes grilled chicken or fish, salad and vegetables

2:00 p.m. - Three-to-four hours on the golf course. Work on swing, short game and occasionally play another nine holes

6:30 p.m. - 30 minutes of upper weight training. High reps

7:00 p.m. - Dinner and rest

(see http://web.tigerwoods.com/fitness/tigerDailyRoutine)

Does this make you rethink your routine? I know I am rethinking mine!

Monday, July 20, 2009

Unfortunately 3 Handicaps Don't Win Major Golf Tournaments

It almost seems cruel to dwell on what undoubtedly cost Tom Watson the British Open instead of all the positives about his amazing golf accomplishment. But as always, the numbers tell an interesting story - loudly and clearly!

First, I really am (and long have been) a fan of Tom Watson. We are contemporaries and I watched and cheered for most of his victories. As a 14 handicap golfer, I bought and devoured his book "Getting Up and Down with Tom Watson" and it changed my game, my attitude and my handicap, dramatically. On 9/10/2002, I played in a golf event that featured Tom, and I had the thrill of a lengthy chat with him during an extended rain delay. In my opinion, he long ago set a new standard for performance and behavior on and off the golf course. Further, the way he handled everything about this Open week should be carefully documented and studied by everyone in and out of golf, but especially those that aspire to compete in the public's eye.

As the Open is the purview of the R & A, there is no ShotLink data, and even the traditional Fairways, Greens and puttting statistics are unavailable. No worries - due to his outstanding play, the telecasts treated us to every shot Tom hit in the final round, so I recorded it and captured his Shot By Shot data for analysis.

Tom's long game was easily that of a champion. In the final round, he made no real mistakes (until the playoff) and hit 12 Greens-in-Regulation (I counted 2 routine putts from the fringe as GIR's). Handicap: +5

Chip/Pitch shots - Certainly not the Tom Watson of old, his six opportunities averaged just over 10 feet from the hole with only half hit to within 5 feet of the cup. Handicap: 0

Sand shots - Only 1 shot hit to 9 feet. Handicap: +1

Putting - Tom had no 3-putts in the final round and made a relatively long one from 28 feet on the par 3 11th hole. He also did not miss any short putts but his undoing was in the "makeable" ranges from 4 to 20 feet where he made only 1 of his 10 opportunities. Wisha-coulda-shoulda, but if he had just made one more of these putts he would have completed the miracle. Here's a sad niblick of truth: If Tom's performance had only been equal to the average putting performance of the PGA Tour, he would have made 4 out of those 10 putts, and finished the British Open with a two-stroke margin of victory. Handicap: 3


Tuesday, July 7, 2009

How Does Tiger Do It?

Any way he can! As an admitted statistical stalker of the World's #1, I have studied Tiger's Shot By Shot golf performance closely since he established his dominance in 1999. At the risk of restating the obvious, his win at Congressional was another example of Tiger's winning blueprint:

Long Game Efficiency
Tiger hits more greens in regulation and uses fewer long game shots in the process than his peers. At Congressional, Tiger averaged 13.75 GIR's and needed 33.15 long strokes (shots from outside 50 yards). Our PGA Tour Winner's profile averages 13 GIR's and 33.5 long strokes - and Congressional was a far cry from Tiger's best long game performance.

The difference goes beyond just hitting on or close to more par 5's in two. It is also Tiger's unique ability to avoid or mitigate mistakes. It is not that he hits no wayward shots in his long game - he does. But what separates him is his combination of power, creativity and shot-making. Outcomes that are errors for most of his peers just aren't for Tiger. More often than not, he is able to come up with the recovery shot that puts him back in position to make par or better.

Avoid the Bad Round
Rarely does a player cruise through an event hitting on all cylinders for four rounds like Kenny Perry did last week at the Travelers. Over and over again, Tiger has shown the ability to manage his "bad" rounds into a acceptable number. This week it was his 3rd round 70 that kept him in contention.

The "Shot"
This is the intangible that Tiger seems to own. It is the impossible chip that topples in the hole on the 13th green at the Masters, and all the long putts to win on the 18th green at Bay Hill. The list is long and growing. These game-changing shots happen for or to others once or twice in their careers. Greg Norman's string of bad luck on the receiving end of these shots comes to mind. But I can't remember Tiger ever being the victim of a miracle shot - please let me know if I missed one. On the contrary, Tiger does it to the field routinely.

In my opinion, this week's "Shot" came in the form of a 20 foot putt on the par-5, 16th hole. Hunter Mahan was in the house at 12 under where he had been since Tiger bogeyed the 11th hole, leaving him in a tie with Mahan. Tiger's best opportunity to regain the lead was the reachable 16th, but when he missed the green with his 2nd, he was confronted with a terrible, green-side lie in deep rough. His chip stopped 20 feet short and we know the rest - he rolled it in for birdie to snatch the lead.

That putt will not take a place at the top of Tiger's miracle list but - situation aside - let's examine the odds. Here are some niblicks from the Tour putting stats: 1) The average percent of putts made on the PGA Tour from 20 to 25 feet is 1 in 8, or 12%. 2) The 2009 YTD leader from this distance (Kevin Na) is 1 in 5, or 21.5%. 3) Of very little significance is that YTD Tiger is 2 of 30 (6.7%) - half the Tour average. Wouldn't we like to see Tiger's numbers filtered by WHEN IT REALLY COUNTS? Maybe I will take that statistical analysis on one of these days.

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Kenny Perry Sets a New Putting Bar

Despite a 3-putt - albeit from 53 feet - Kenny Perry's putting performance was the best yet logged into our 2009 Tour Winner's database. Brian Gay set the previous mark by making 53% of the 70 1st-putt opportunities that he faced at the St. Jude Golf Classic in Memphis AND without a 3-putt.

Kenny had 71 1st putt chances and only made 46% and, as stated, recorded a single 3-putt in his final round. How then could his putting performance be considered better? As I have written many times, it is the DISTANCE that counts NOT the total number of putts. The average starting distance of Kenny's putts for the week was almost 7 feet further from the hole than Brian Gay's.

Kenny Perry 17 feet vs. Brian Gay 10 feet
This 7 foot difference is extremely important because even the best of the best golfers on the PGA Tour see their "make" percentage fall off rapidly outside 10 feet. Kenny Perry separated himself in the 11 - 30 foot range where he made 12 of 35 attempts (34%). The Tour average would be 9, or 26%. Coincidently, Kenny's three stroke difference exactly matches his margin of victory.

Two key niblicks of truth about Kenny's 3-putt: First, it is not at all unusual for the winner on the PGA Tour to have one. Our 2009 Winners 3-putt once in every 100 attempts (1%). Most of the 3-putts fall in the 50+ foot range like Kenny's. Second, more than one 3-putt, however, generally results in not winning a tournament. Our 2009 Top-10 profile, comprised of players usually only 2 or 3 shots away from winning, 3-putts 2% of their opportunities.

What should we mere mortal golfers take from all this? Nothing too profound, except the advice that on those days when your putter is "hot" and you are seeing and feeling the line, take advantage of it - they don't come along very often.